Crises of Nigeria’s electoral forecasts

Towards the end of the first republic, the Sardauna of Sokoto and premier of the then Northern Nigeria, Sir Ahmadu Bello, embarked on a lasting mis­sion of “spiritual atonement.” This mission was activated against the backdrop of a mallam’s forecast that the Sardauna would die at the age of 56 years and would never become the Sultan of Sokoto. Notwithstanding the veracity of the mallam’s prediction, his prophesy had a self-fulfilling impact on the sardauna. He embarked on an un­relieved fatalistic behaviour that ul­timately and inexorably crystallized in his demise shortly afterwards. In spite of several warnings from the security agencies, previous let­ters of threats to his life, he raised no finger to avert the impending violent coup which claimed his life. Conversely, he phenomenally exerted himself more at work, bore himself with dignity and courage to the end. Perhaps, drawing flesh and impetus from the prophesy, he mobilized the Northern populace on the basis of shared beliefs, cus­toms, religion, history, and socio-economic interests.

50 years ago, in 1964, when Nige­ria was confronted with a dramatic federal election that supplanted the fledgling democracy of the time, scores of seers, sorcerers, prophets, and other “men of God”, launched vicious proclamations that created immense tension, and stirred the blood bath that was to follow. A par­ticular “Nostradamus” had claimed that the violence in the western re­gion had been pre-ordained to chal­lenge the Sardauna’s religious activi­ties aimed at ‘Islamizing” polytheists or pagans.
As a solution to the deepening clash between the Kaduna based Northern leaders and those in La­gos, the prophet had decreed that only the movement of the Federal capital from Lagos, to the Inland, a no man’s land, would halt the disin­tegration of the nation. Had he lived, it is doubtful if the Sardauna would have disagreed with the late Justice Akinnola Aguda, and Dr Tai Solarin on their choice of Abuja as the fed­eral capital, less than a decade after the prediction.
The late head of state, Gen Mur­tala Mohammed and the late Gen Sani Abacha, made headlines with their association with “mullahs”, and “marabouts” who saw their invinci­bility etched on the nation’s socio-political path for a lifetime beyond four scores.
Indeed, a particular “marabout” from Gambia, impressed on Abacha that two attempts would be made on his life and his regime, and if he over­came them, then he was destined to coast along in power, decimating all opponents till the end. It is not cer­tain if he contrived the two phantom coups of 1995, to rationalize the expediency of the prophesy. Most recently, ahead of the 2007 general elections, a contestant for a seat in the House of Representatives in La­gos, was told by a prophet that only the death of his only five year female toddler would crystallize into the ac­tualization of his political dream. As the election approached and the child showed no sign of sickness or im­minent death, the politician became desperate and “arranged” the acci­dental crushing of the girl with his own car, right in front of his house as she waddled around to bid him bye.
As Nigeria approaches another crucial election next month, there is a festering air of prophesies, and re­ligious intervention on the outcome of the elections. Most striking is the presidential elections on February 14, which analysts have underscored as having all the indices of a close contest between incumbent Presi­dent, Goodluck Jonathan, a Christian minority from the south South, and Gen Muhammadu Buhari, a former military ruler, from the politically strong North.
Latching onto this scenario, a rash of predictions on the outcome is pouring out in torrents. To outdo each other, some prophets have en­gaged in summersaults as in the re­cent case in Enugu, where the charis­matic Reverend father Ejike Mbaka of the Catholic adoration ministries had within a month given contradic­tory visions on the result of the presi­dential contest. In early December last year, at the instance of the first lady, Dame Patience Jonathan, and the Deputy senate president, Ike Ekweremadu, he had reassured Jon­athan of a resounding victory at the pools. He reversed himself a month later, in his New Year message, urg­ing Nigerians to vote for Buhari, as Jonathan was no longer in the good books of God. He claimed that a symbolic confirmation came when out of the four pigeons he released to fly, the fattest one, representing Jonathan, failed to fly, despite series of promptings.
Off-limits
More grounds have emerged on why the controversial reverend fa­ther reversed his earlier prediction. He was quoted to have said, “When she came (Mrs Jonathan) here, I told her to give me her number so that I could give her messages; but thrice she refused. It was later she told one of the pastors with her to give me his number”… “So, before that mes­sage, I had called the number for two weeks, but it was always the personal assistant to the Pastor that picked the calls.” Reacting to the development, the Archbishop of Abuja, Cardinal John Onaiyekan, said, “Mbaka is a priest of his own type. If he was in my archdiocese, I would have sanc­tioned him long ago for the kind of things and utterances that he makes.
But he is not under my diocese.  He has a bishop to handle that.”
Before Mbaka’s tirade against Jonathan, an Islamic sheikh, Abubakar Gumi had made scathing remarks about General Buhari’s can­didacy, pledging that God had already endorsed the futility of his presidential dream. Pastor Tunde Bakare, a cleric and pastor of the latter rain Assembly, also in 1998, declared that ex-president olusegun Obasanjo was not the Mes­siah Nigerians were waiting for. Obasanjo not only won the elections in 1999, but also secured a second term in office. Only last week Chan­nels, a privately owned television station had to hurriedly yank off Bakare’s commercial broadcast tape over some contents that were considered offensive to the government. The tape en-titled, “The gathering storm and avoid­able shipwreck: How to avoid catastrophic eu­roclydom, being state of the nation broadcast on Sunday the 4th of January, 2015. He said in part… “Although, the position I stand here today to declare may appear as controversial to many, I do not go about seeking controversies. It is the Lord who has a controversy with the nations, with the inhabitants of the land, and with his people, because their counsel is con­trary to his, according to Jeremiah 25:31”
He continues: “Nevertheless, in the year 2015, a crucial year in the unfolding history of our nation, the four winds of the earth are about to hit the nation in one combined storm that will not leave her the same. The purpose of this broadcast is to give a timely warning be­fore the storm arrives like Apostle Paul did on that journey to Rome in the Alexandrian ship, (Acts 27), as well as to proffer an alternative pathway even if the warning and the proposals are rejected as occurred in Paul’s case” he did not mince words in casting his lot on Buhari, who paired with him in the 2011 presidential election. And while Bakare is talking about the gathering storm that may sweep Nigeria away, the founder of Champions Royal As­sembly, Joshua Iginla has a contrary view. He insists Nigeria will survive according to God’s words to him. He says that despite the attempt by the opposition party at the Federal level to take over the reins of power this year, President Goodluck Jonathan will bounce back. “God revealed to me that Nigeria will not split, be­cause the hand I saw in my revelation that was holding Nigeria was bigger than the population put together. The prophecy that Nigeria will split will not come to pass. However, there will be serious shaking this year and both the small and the mighty will feel it. The president we have may not be the best, but it was revealed to me that he will still remain on the seat. But the president and his wife should pray hard to finish their next tenure together.” “The forth­coming elections would be very tough. The All progressives Congress (APC) will win more states and they will also lose some states but they would not win the presidency. The party that will rattle the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP is yet to be formed and it would soon show up but the power of the PDP would con­tinue to weaken. The leader of the APC, Bola Tinubu should pray to finish the political fire that he has started because even the bones of the mighty can be broken. Also the governor of Kogi State should pray because I saw him fighting to sustain his breadth.
Shortly after the election, God revealed to me that there would be great vandalism. Ex­actly six days after the elections, cars would be burnt and property would be destroyed in the uproar. We need to pray against military inter­vention because so many great men will fall,” he explains.
For Apostle Dr Ogochukwu Toochukwu Amaukwu, the election may be threatened, but if it holds, “there will be serious eruption of violence and the military will seize power
Again, If the elections are not averted, Presi­dent Goodluck Jonathan will win and remain in power”. He reels out more: “President Jona­than is the last PDP president.
“I see APC winning 70 per cent of the seats, but I see President Goodluck Jonathan taking the presidency. If at all there will be election, APC will claim to have won the presidential election and will drag PDP to court. APC will accuse President Goodluck Jonathan, PDP and INEC of rigging the election in favour of Goodluck Jonathan, but the court will give it to Jonathan. There will be a cry for re-election. There will be massive rigging here and there.”
Apostle Johnson Suleiman is not left out. He says the election would be a replica of the controversial June 12, 1993 elections that sparked troubles. He says there are plans to kill Jonathan. Suleiman heads the Warri based Omega Fire Ministries. The general overseer of the Mountain of Fire and Miracles ministries, MFM, Dr David Kolawole Olukoya opted to speak in parables. “I will speak in parables. This year is going to be mysterious, cautious and dribbling year. So you will have to find the solution instead of diagnosing the problems carried by the year.”
Not befuddled by the anarchist forecasts, politicians are strutting from one spiritual home to the other in search of answers to the posers and to clinch victory at all costs. So much is the interest in this spiritual dimension to the election that seers and men of God have been put under pressure to make outlandish procla­mations. A chieftain of the PDP in Lagos de­scribes this new dimension as “desperate and dangerous.” He says it has the capacity not only to mislead, but to trigger off-tension and resistance. Another politician and contestant for a seat in the House of Representatives in Imo State Chief Osita Opara, ascribes it to the deepening interest in spirituality by Nigerians. “Nigerians are acclaimed religious people. They inject things of the spirit and terrestrial powers in everything, least of all elections.”
How far will these forecasts go? February 14 is a date that precariously stares the nation, the people and their destiny in the face.
SOURCE:SUN NEWS